How will buildout affect wildfire losses in El Dorado County?

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Table of Contents (in slide order)

1. How will buildout affect wildfire losses in El Dorado County?
2. Buildout footprint in El Dorado County
3. Estimating Expected Losses
4. Estimating Conditional Probability of Loss
5. Estimating Conditional Probability of Loss
6. Input data: fuels
7. Input data: slope
8. Input data: exposure to spotting
9. Conditional probability of loss varies from near zero to near 90%
10. What's the current Situation Look Like?
11. What's the current Situation Look Like?
12. What's the current Situation Look Like?
13. Probability of a damaging fire converts
14. Probability of a damaging fire converts
15. Probability of a damaging fire converts
16. Buildout increases the number of houses from current
17. Buildout increases the number of houses from current to higher levels
18. Buildout lowers P(burning)
19. Buildout lowers P(burning)
20. What policies will affect fuels in the intermix landscape?
21. How does discretionary review get applied?
22. What kind of landscape does this project focus produce?
23. Buildout leads to different mitigation levels according to land use designations
24. Buildout leads to different mitigation levels according to land use designations
25. Mitigation leads to lower conditional probabilities of loss
26. Mitigation leads to lower conditional probabilities of loss
27. But housing increases outstrip probability decreases: total loss grows
28. But housing increases outstrip probability decreases: total loss grows
29. With widespread mitigation, the projected increase in expected loss at buildout
30. With widespread mitigation, the projected increase in expected loss at buildout
31. With widespread mitigation, the projected increase in expected loss at buildout